Ten years ago, I predicted 2022. Did I get it right?

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  • Published on Jan 9, 2022
  • Predicting the future is a fool's errand, but I tried it: talking about phones, lifelogging, and social changes. And on top of that: what do I think's coming in 2032?

    2012 photo credits:
    Andy Davidson, IMG_1790, www.flickr.com/photos/andy_d/...
    Andy Davidson, IMG_1791, www.flickr.com/photos/andy_d/...
    both licensed under Creative Commons Attribution 2.0 creativecommons.org/licenses/...

    The Brief History of the Dead by Kevin Brockmeier: amzn.to/3qkj9jP [that's an affiliate link]

    Thanks to Garry, Alex and K for suggesting this video!

    I'm at tomscott.com
    on Twitter at tomscott
    on Facebook at tomscott
    and on Instagram as tomscottgo

Comments • 10 354

  • Tom Scott
    Tom Scott  10 days ago +80004

    And yes, to avoid the obvious comments: I have aged in the last ten years. It'll happen to you, too. And it's better than the alternative!

    • KsuhDilla
      KsuhDilla Day ago

      dude you aged omg

    • Rob
      Rob 9 days ago +7

      You look about 18 in that old video now you look about 48.

    • targetdecoy
      targetdecoy 9 days ago

      stop making me think about my own mortality!

    • TeaTime Boy
      TeaTime Boy 9 days ago

      You aged kinda fast tho

    • will loadedchamber
      will loadedchamber 9 days ago

      Mm true

  • Tinker Man Mick
    Tinker Man Mick 7 days ago +20590

    I was dreaming of wireless headphones when I was skateboarding as a teenage kid. In my 30's now and the dream has finally come true. 😁

    • hurtz
      hurtz Day ago

      @Evanz111 and “hardest mission in phasmophobia as level 1” is?

    • Everything GMR
      Everything GMR Day ago

      yo I know you from sams streams

    • dhsarah
      dhsarah Day ago

      i always prayed to god that i could listen to music in my head so my siblings wouldn't make fun of me for what i was listening to like they always did. and now i have auditory hallucinations and i most likely have schizo-effective disorder! yay! mission accomplished!

    • MK8 Master!
      MK8 Master! Day ago

      @Zoli I can if it is constructive.

    • MK8 Master!
      MK8 Master! Day ago

      @Red Stoner What do donkeys have to do with this?

  • Dash
    Dash 2 days ago +1967

    Tom always answers the questions we didn’t know we had

  • Pietro
    Pietro 4 days ago +5259

    "Our phones will record everything we say."
    Tom : "Ah,I got this one wrong".
    Facebook and Google that are listening to send you ads : sigh of relief

    • Miguel Flores
      Miguel Flores 15 hours ago

      @MrNicoJac MrNicoJac writing skills = Intelligent kid from a wealthy family with Masters Degree in college
      MrNicoJac common sense = 12th generation inbr3d h!ck that grew up in an trailer park in Alabama

    • Miguel Flores
      Miguel Flores 16 hours ago

      @dudu28r btw I self reflected and thought about myself and what I said long and hard just for you dudu boy. I still think what that pea brain half-human commented is one of the most small minded thoughts that a human who can speak/type that well could possibly have. I appreciate your self reflection recommendation, thank you Dudu!!

    • dudu28r
      dudu28r 16 hours ago +1

      @Miguel Flores self-reflect much?

    • Praxerian
      Praxerian 21 hour ago +1

      @Miguel Flores Damn salty

    • RACHEL PARK
      RACHEL PARK Day ago

      Every question you ask Alexa Google and stuff like that they probably all here and I honestly don't care

  • deezzy 💕
    deezzy 💕 4 days ago +2758

    Tom: When has anyone been ever able to predict politics?
    The Simpsons: Hold my beer.

    • Frenz1
      Frenz1 12 hours ago

      @Tanuko If i write down a million things that i say will come true and one of them does, did i really predict anything?

    • Tanuko
      Tanuko Day ago +1

      @RK i dont see how this disproves anything.
      they still got it right nonetheless.
      doesnt matter how many tries it took

    • llIIlliilll
      llIIlliilll Day ago +1

      @Mmmmbl true, I think I've watched a video about the Simpson was made after the event idk if it's true or not..

    • Mmmmbl
      Mmmmbl 2 days ago +2

      Some of them were hoaxes, others were made after the event

    • RK
      RK 2 days ago +5

      @ari b Simpsons made thousands of predications, if you make that many then clearly some of them will "come true"

  • Mike Sutherland
    Mike Sutherland 4 days ago +3687

    I believe there's a value in making these predictions 10 years in the future. Your predictions, while wrong in many cases, were well informed and researched at the time and provide us a reference to see the real change that happened in the subsequent years. We experience change incrementally which makes it very difficult to see how big the change is over a span of time without having a reference point that captures the sentiment at that time, almost like taking a screenshot of history.

    • Tord Tjora
      Tord Tjora Day ago

      Your profile picture looks like Tom Felton

    • Chasing Fields
      Chasing Fields Day ago +3

      People generally seem to think a lot more will change in ten years than it does. In 2012, I was still in school and I believed we would have all kinds of futuristic tech by 2022, because there were always news stories about crazy tech being developed like robot dogs, exoskeletons and nanobots. In reality, surprisingly little has changed since then. We still use smartphones with very similar operating systems, social media is practically identical to how it was in 2012. Music and fashion hasn't even changed much, which is really weird. I'd have thought hipster glasses and skinny jeans would have gone out of fashion many years ago. It seemed like minimalism would become a thing, but instead we mostly have giant gas-devouring SUVs that look more over-designed than vehicles ever have and homes that look like they can't decide whether they want to be an old cabin or the house of the future. We don't have nano-fiber clothing, google glass is gone and VR is still niche.

    • imQr
      imQr 2 days ago +9

      @doge can't read two and a half lines 😂

    • Esmarlyn
      Esmarlyn 2 days ago +3

      i completely agree

    • Competitive Antagonist
      Competitive Antagonist 3 days ago +4

      His predictions are only wrong because we learnt to avoid them, thanks to his warning about them.

  • Patterrz
    Patterrz 10 days ago +23983

    I can't imagine a world without TheXvid, where would I procrastinate all day to avoid my responsibilities??

  • Cyranek
    Cyranek 2 days ago +731

    I'm gonna be the boomer talking about the good ole youtube days

    • Bread
      Bread 11 hours ago +2

      2060 - "Grandson, there was once a dislike button..."

    • TayoEXE
      TayoEXE 23 hours ago +2

      @Michael Not to mention CDI YTPs galore, Rick Astley, and videos that couldn't be more than 10 minutes long.

    • Michael
      Michael Day ago +3

      Welcome to the club. I miss the good ol' days, when TheXvid was a small independent website, with a huge mess of nothing but David Icke conspiracy theories and blurry clips of flying saucers...

    • TayoEXE
      TayoEXE Day ago +1

      I'm already a TheXvid Boomer since it was new when I was a preteen just making dumb videos. It surprises me is that there are now young adults who have never existed in a pre-TheXvid era.

    • Red Stoner
      Red Stoner 2 days ago +1

      Bring it back

  • Dave R
    Dave R 3 days ago +1091

    "And it's better than the alternative!" well said...we lost a friend of ours at 29 so whenever the rest of us hit a milestone birthday now we think of what the alternative is to getting older.

    • sushigear
      sushigear Day ago

      @Saverio _ Whether there is an after life or not, it's still better to live out your full life so I would beg to differ

    • Dan & Elissa Nolan
      Dan & Elissa Nolan 2 days ago +11

      Same here exactly. Im turning 30 this year and because im a recovered addict ive seen a few dozen people die before 30. Its bittersweet. Im greatful to be here but it hurts thats all those people arent. even 2 of my exes overdosed.

    • Saverio _
      Saverio _ 2 days ago +12

      Well tbh we dont know what the alternative really is like. Maybe the after life is cool af, so maybe no, its not better than the alternative

  • Kevin E
    Kevin E 4 days ago +568

    I was a teenager back around 2005-2006 when I remember seriously wishing there was some way I could get the internet into a car so that I could listen to internet radio there. If you want to know what's going to happen in the next 3 or 4 years in tech, just ask a teenager what's missing.

    • [Content Deleted]
      [Content Deleted] 8 hours ago

      @Wmvp Onion haha planet go boom

    • Lerity Kay
      Lerity Kay 13 hours ago +2

      @Wmvp Onion Ah yes good old dystopia

    • Peter Griffin
      Peter Griffin 20 hours ago +1

      @Wmvp Onion bigger balls

    • Wmvp Onion
      Wmvp Onion 23 hours ago +1

      mm. Bigger nukes. Bigger guns. Bigger buildings. Bigger everything EXPAND THE WORLD

    • dreamdoughnuts
      dreamdoughnuts Day ago +25

      Better things for disabled people :)

  • Jake
    Jake 4 days ago +224

    Well, one prediction I can tell about 2032 - we'll still be laughing about 10 years old predictions about the future

    • Michael
      Michael Day ago

      One thing I'll predict right now is, no one is going to be worried about the coof in 2032.

    • Sam
      Sam Day ago

      @senpai Be gone nihilist

    • Catzillaepic
      Catzillaepic Day ago

      @senpai ?

    • senpai
      senpai 2 days ago +4

      We'll all be gone. Hahahaha we'll never grow up everyone will die lmfao

    • Sevak Shahbazian
      Sevak Shahbazian 2 days ago +10

      Watch out at 2025 april 24 10:36 am

  • Just Some Guy without a Mustache

    I think the lesson we can take away here, is that nobody can truly predict the future, no matter how knowledgeable you may be in the topic.

    • elvaytied
      elvaytied 2 days ago

      @Just some guy called Karaka I refuse to believe you are so much of a nerd that you make your account named after some random commenter that spends all day on TheXvid, and is also a nerd. You’ve got to be an alt account of his

    • doobeedoobeedoobah
      doobeedoobeedoobah 4 days ago

      If you're Bill Gates then yes 🙃

    • gamermike111
      gamermike111 5 days ago

      @Joshua Bruce simpsons moment

    • gamermike111
      gamermike111 5 days ago

      @Emoji Movie hmmmmmm

    • Emoji Movie
      Emoji Movie 5 days ago +1

      If you’re using pc, you can skip ads in less than a second by clicking on the video, then clicking ⬅ and then clicking ➡.

      Note: This does not work on mobile.

  • SouL
    SouL Day ago +25

    As long as you include the words “big” and “disaster” in somewhat close proximity then yes you predicted correctly

  • Momo _
    Momo _ 2 days ago +5

    The prediction is scary. But scarily accurate. TheXvid just announced its rolling back on YT originals and expanding shorts and live content.
    It’s already happening. I wish I was more shocked.

  • Luke Detering
    Luke Detering Day ago +6

    I'm weird when it comes to wireless earbuds. I like using them. However, I never want the ones without a cord in between to connect the earbuds. If it's just a set of earbuds, I know I would lose them and they would probably fall off my ear more often.

  • 0x01A5
    0x01A5 3 days ago +8

    So what you said as a big miss on recording audio for life logging and getting a transcript for it, you're actually closer than you realized. Microsoft with Teams can actually do this. You can have a call and have a written transcript of that stored thanks to Azure Cognitive Speech Services. I actually use the same technology for my diary in a Star Trek-style "Captain's Log", leveraging my skills as a software engineer.

    • Michael
      Michael Day ago

      In the future, we won't just be recording audio and video.
      Already now, iPhones are routinely recording depth maps along with the video.
      Prepare to have the power, to record and monitor ultrasound and infrasound as well! No need to wear a pulse watch in the future, when your "phone" will be able to listen to your heart, without having a sensor strapped to your skin.

  • Hello Future Me
    Hello Future Me 9 days ago +8243

    The end of this video genuinely sent a shiver down my spine as someone who relies on longform content.

    • Michael
      Michael Day ago

      Don't worry. TheXvid is probably dying, but longform video content isn't going away any time soon.

    • KevinementD
      KevinementD Day ago

      I wouldn’t worry about it. I think Scott is making a false equivalency when comparing blogs and Twitter to TheXvid and TikTok.

      Blogs were never really that popular and I don’t think Twitter replaced them, I think they just declined because there is no interest in them.

      But there never was all that much interest in blogging. Frankly, I never understood the appeal of reading amateurish stories about mundane life experiences.

    • KITTIE
      KITTIE 3 days ago

      If no youtube i think people will spent their time back watching tv or netflix.

    • Rufei
      Rufei 3 days ago

      @Edrick For those of us who are a bit older, it's like the death of Newgrounds and Flash. Older than that, the death of Kazaa and Real Media Player. It happens, people move on.

    • Matanui
      Matanui 4 days ago

      Long form isn't going anywhere.

      Tiktok isn't for anyone

  • RANDOM æð
    RANDOM æð Day ago +3

    It's easy to predict the future, things are going to suck. Genius.

  • score
    score 2 days ago +1

    It's really sad to see how everything online since then has only further centralised and de-individualised. I find myself longing for the times of old when people owning their own websites wasn't some celebrity and obscure tech geek thing.

    On the other hand, bus and train companies have finally figured out how to put their timetables and more online, which is something I was begging for back in the day.

  • Nasreddine El-Dahabi
    Nasreddine El-Dahabi 4 days ago +85

    I still remember when I was an 8 year old kid in 2012, I said I’ll be an adult in 2022. While today, for some reason, it felt like I said it a month ago

    • NA05
      NA05 Day ago +1

      oh i was 7 years old in 2012 n.n

    • KevinementD
      KevinementD Day ago

      You can do a very
      Simple thing to make this feel longer. Try to think
      of all your memories since then. You’ll realise how much you’ve actually experienced in life.

    • hanphil noffz
      hanphil noffz 2 days ago +2

      Are you graduating this year I'm born 2001 I thought I was adult 2018-2021 but im officially one 2022

  • Kain 128
    Kain 128 5 days ago +206

    I would argue that short term content would mostly stay in apps like TikTok since long video essays and streams (And in turn vods) have become increasingly popular in recent years.

    • carso1500
      carso1500 3 days ago +3

      @Ray the problem is that as tom said there is no money to be made from short videos, most of the money made from TheXvid is from adds and promotions (lets see if you remember this names, hello fresh, expressVPN, raid shadow legends)

      The problem with short videos is that you can't promote anything in them, if they had adds before the videos it would kill the fast and loose experience and people can't promote products in then because said promotion would probably take more time than the vídeo itself

      Another weakness of the short video is that it doesnt produce any pasive income, i think some youtuber revealed that you make like 52 dollars for a 5 million views in a short video or something crazy like that, simply speaking it's not a sustainable source of income unlike making long form videos

      What i can see is short videos becoming incresingle popular to promote other content of the creator just like how Twitter is not the main platform of any celebrity unless you do like art comisions or something like that

    • Ray
      Ray 3 days ago +5

      I would say you're half correct. instagram reels and youtube shorts are already massively popular, I wouldn't be surprised if short videos completely took over medium-length youtube videos. of course streaming/long videos will still exist, but I think that medium length videos (5-20 minutes) will disappear for the most part.

  • ElderFox Documentaries
    ElderFox Documentaries 10 days ago +4659

    I don't think TheXvid will ever be shutdown. The historical value of the information stored on this site is too great. They might slowly reduce the amount creators receive and save costs by further raising the bar for new uploads, but I just can't imagine the world without TheXvid for the next 20 years atleast. In the far future if it must be shutdown, I believe a lot of the videos will be archived.

    • ari b
      ari b 3 days ago

      they remove history they dont like

    • Jacob Hively
      Jacob Hively 4 days ago +1

      Everything ends

    • Emoji Movie
      Emoji Movie 5 days ago +1

      If you’re using pc, you can skip ads in less than a second by clicking on the video, then clicking ⬅ and then clicking ➡.

      Note: This does not work on mobile

    • David H
      David H 6 days ago

      @Lleldorellin To be fair, Adobe _had_ to shut down Flash, the security risk was just too great

    • Unapologetic Apollo
      Unapologetic Apollo 6 days ago

      I'm sure they said the same thing about flash .. but look what happened

  • Hayzy Horses
    Hayzy Horses 23 hours ago +1

    What I got from this video is how much we have changed even in the last 10 years. At 17, I’ve seen little change that I can remember. I kind of always think that things stopped changing around 2005. It was a blow to my reality that only about half the people had smart phones 10 years ago, while I have grown up in a society that always has them, and I honestly can’t imagine going through most of my life without one

  • Ryan Aun
    Ryan Aun 22 hours ago +1

    Kudos for rewatching and responding to this Tom, it can be really agonising to revisit the work of our younger selves and you handled this with admirable composure and balanced honesty about your predictions which missed the mark

  • Satisfying Thumbnail Guy

    There's something just so satisfying about hearing a prediction.

  • Muffin Mystery
    Muffin Mystery 2 days ago +1

    I used to think wireless earphones were a waste, but I found that wired earphones stop working or break frequently (probably due to planned obsolesence) and that audio ports degrade over time.

  • good。luck !
    good。luck ! 10 days ago +1589

    2012: “The descendant of Siri will have advanced abilities”

    Actual 2022: “Hey Siri, call my dad”
    “Ok, showing google results for Call of Duty”

    • bristoled93
      bristoled93 3 days ago +1

      @The Recluse Many British people say me instead of my too.

    • Art Vandalay
      Art Vandalay 4 days ago +2

      2022 Siri: *exactly the same as 2012 Siri* 😆🤦‍♂️

    • Michael Petras
      Michael Petras 4 days ago

      @Well Silver well, spit them out

    • Michael Petras
      Michael Petras 4 days ago

      @Emoji Movie hm? I don’t follow

    • Emoji Movie
      Emoji Movie 5 days ago +1

      If you’re using pc, you can skip ads in less than a second by clicking on the video, then clicking ⬅ and then clicking ➡.

      Note: This does not work on mobile.

  • Farhan Rizaludin
    Farhan Rizaludin 2 days ago +1

    In my opinion: We haven't advanced much as we thought we would ten years ago, in fact some things might have _regressed_ instead. The phrase 'good old days' becomes more and more relevant each day, or I am just getting old.

  • J P
    J P 4 days ago +1

    When you got to the wireless headphone part, I immediately guessed because you haven't used them, then you admitted it.

    Buy a cheap $40 pair that has a charging case, I have a rectangle-cased Otium brand from years ago and they're still going strong. I use them every day for hours, usually only in one ear at a time, and am surprised when I have to charge the case, because it's like once a month.

    If you're an audiophile, I don't think they're for you, but then again, neither are regular, cheap wired earbuds.

  • Anch0r
    Anch0r 4 days ago +1

    I feel like a lot of people would cut out most of the incorrect predictions, but you didn't. Props to avoiding that cognitive bias!

  • mllop aeet
    mllop aeet Day ago +1

    2012: “The descendant of Siri will have advanced abilities” Actual 2022: “Hey Siri, call my dad” “Ok, showing google results for Call of Duty”

  • Andrea
    Andrea Day ago +1

    I can't believe 2012 was ten years ago... life really seems to go by faster and faster as you grow up. Ten years. Wow.

  • Mr Moth
    Mr Moth 11 hours ago +2

    I predict that in 10 years it will be 2032. Might sound crazy now but we'll see who will get the last laugh in ten years when I would've successfully predicted 2032.

  • C S
    C S Day ago +1

    prediction for 2032: everyone has finally realized that a post apocalyptic corporate owned future is not just a possibility but an inevitability. People are either signing lifetime contracts with companies or slowly dying from being impoverished in a world crippled by climate change. Rich people are still super happy.

  • Meaculpa
    Meaculpa Day ago +2

    You "aged" crazy well you gathered great knowledge and you are wiser

  • Flebsy
    Flebsy 10 days ago +27924

    The prediction of short form content *completely* taking over long form content reminds me almost exactly how mobile games were "destined" to kill the traditional gaming industry. "Why make a console game if it cost 10x the amount and made 10x less money?" "Everyones going to have a phone, they won't need a console!" We now know how both can co-exist and continue to grow, but 10 years ago it really felt like it could happen. I think there's a very good place for both and it'll still be that way in 10 years. Short form will be king (it currently is), but long form will stay healthy and continue to grow.

    • Srijit Giri
      Srijit Giri 4 days ago

      The problem with short form is that you can’t store detailed information and it is rather used for information. In the future youtube will still be able to flourish because of this

    • Emoji Movie
      Emoji Movie 5 days ago

      If you’re using pc, you can skip ads in less than a second by clicking on the video, then clicking ⬅ and then clicking ➡.

      Note: This does not work on mobile

    • xg223
      xg223 6 days ago

      There is no mobile game industry. Outside of a bare few ports from other systems, almost everything on mobile that calls itself a "game" is merely an app that has as its sole purpose to coerce the user to spend money, with no gameplay to speak of.
      That's why the mobile "game" industry hasn't killed traditional games; it would be just as silly to think the toothbrush industry could kill the traditional games industry.

    • Bear's Audio Emporium
      Bear's Audio Emporium 6 days ago

      @Gurin Jeimuzu Gen Z here, Tiktok is the thing we waste our time on the toilet or in school. TheXvid is still the go to for content for the majority.

    • Mohd Zaman795
      Mohd Zaman795 6 days ago

      @Gurin Jeimuzu but his claim of TheXvid not being a thing in 10 years time is a bold one. Hence you might have not gotten his point

  • Simon Reed
    Simon Reed 4 days ago +64

    There is no way you aged that much in 10 years you’re definitely from the future

    • Marley Monty
      Marley Monty Day ago +3

      @ChannelFlim23 puberty is the difference

    • Kryoaccelat
      Kryoaccelat 3 days ago +2

      prepare yourself this is a fate everyone will experience at some point

    • ChannelFlim23
      ChannelFlim23 3 days ago +3

      Let's say you're 10 and in 10 years you are 20

      See the difference?

  • cristian
    cristian 4 days ago +2

    I can’t settle with the idea of TheXvid being shut down. I feel like the community is too powerful and it holds a strong place in so many peoples hearts

  • annag cocl
    annag cocl 3 days ago +1

    The end of this video genuinely sent a shiver down my spine as someone who relies on longform content.

  • MrOffTrail
    MrOffTrail 3 days ago +2

    There’s a difference between blogs and TheXvid. Much of the old blogs were vanity content, political opinions, and the like. That content has migrated to Twitter, Instagram, and TikTok for the reasons you mentioned. But TheXvid content often has utility, or explores subjects in depth. You can’t learn how to wire a light fixture, do a brake job on your car, or learn Blender from a TikTok. Also, a lot of the actual substantive content from blogs has migrated to podcasts. These have the edge because you can listen while you do mundane tasks like laundry or mowing the lawn. I think long-format content will continue to have a place, especially after the short format novelty wears off. We are already seeing people in droves abandon Twitter to the screaming maniacs that have embraced it to the fullest.

  • Tech & Nostalgia Kingdom
    Tech & Nostalgia Kingdom 10 days ago +4594

    That's too scary to think about for me as a channel owner with more than 2000 videos on it. And if it does happen, I really really hope that the videos on this platform will still be archived somewhere.

    • Emoji Movie
      Emoji Movie 5 days ago +1

      If you’re using pc, you can skip ads in less than a second by clicking on the video, then clicking ⬅ and then clicking ➡.

      Note: This does not work on mobile.

    • AndeemenGaming
      AndeemenGaming 5 days ago

      @Milo Murphy thirt-

      een

    • Milo Murphy
      Milo Murphy 5 days ago

      @AndeemenGaming how old are you????????

    • Milo Murphy
      Milo Murphy 5 days ago

      @Christopher Graney-Ward that’s true. But what happens when TikTok completely replaces TheXvid? Netflix might even go out of business soon, so why would TheXvid TV still survive? TheXvid TV isn’t even a very good streaming service. It’s not impossible that people might eventually stop using TheXvid.

    • AndeemenGaming
      AndeemenGaming 7 days ago +1

      but damn i'll miss yt, been watching since i was a toddler

  • gleep23
    gleep23 3 days ago +4

    10 years from now, watching this video at IMAX 3D cinema with friends. Booked $250 tickets months in advance. I'm wearing my " I

  • Tommy Naclerio
    Tommy Naclerio 2 days ago +1

    Love this video idea. Making predictions is tough, but it is like looking forward to the different possibilities.

  • Bearie roblox
    Bearie roblox 2 days ago +2

    I highly doubt google would shut down TheXvid considering it’s the biggest social media platform. Also with the new shorts feature it kinda ticks both boxes.

  • Forest
    Forest Day ago +1

    While TheXvid didn’t kill television I predict 10 years from now that apps like Disney+, Netflix, Hulu, (and similar) could be a lot more common than they already are. I already know handfuls of people who opt out of paying for cable altogether, my family included.

    • Xen N
      Xen N 7 hours ago

      You're going to see cable companies folding streaming services into their packages. Idk if it will take off, but they'll try.

  • Radu Tunareanu
    Radu Tunareanu 10 days ago +2347

    I just hope you're wrong and people will get fed up with extremely short, superficial TikTok videos. Your type of content/format is the one i prefer, and i hope it never dies.

    • Lala
      Lala Day ago

      I really hope the kids aren't just watching short form TikToks, because there's no hope for the future if people have zero attention span.

    • Bonnie Keyworth
      Bonnie Keyworth Day ago

      I love short videos but I get bored. I think it should divide in time. Like TheXvid Kids is separated from TheXvid yet apart of it. So should the shorts. Maybe a separated TheXvid Shorts app. And maybe the ability to switch between services as needed. If this isn't the case then in 10 years we will have moved on to the next information station. Because that is where we keep going. Each new trend starts with a desire to share important information with others.

    • Emoji Movie
      Emoji Movie 5 days ago +1

      If you’re using pc, you can skip ads in less than a second by clicking on the video, then clicking ⬅ and then clicking ➡.

      Note: This does not work on mobile

    • Thoticcus Prime
      Thoticcus Prime 6 days ago

      @Thiefree tik tok is musically

    • Keyboard Warrior
      Keyboard Warrior 7 days ago

      blogs, articles, and long videos will always be the best for educational and informational material.

  • Probably the last man on club penguin

    Honestly, just having the thought of Google shutting down TheXvid is spine-chilling

  • Moss
    Moss 3 days ago +2

    I hope that there's a longform video site that rises from the mistakes TheXvid has made. Similar to TheXvid but with a better copyright detection system and one that still has the dislike counter among other things. I mean, I love TheXvid for what it's done for longform and edited videos and letting us monetize them, don't get me wrong, but there's gotta be a better way.

  • Davon Allen
    Davon Allen 4 days ago +3

    my prediction is that we will most likely want to create many decentralized video platforms in order to have more control of our content

  • RadiantFrosttt
    RadiantFrosttt 4 days ago +9

    I love how you went from looking 18 to 60 in ten years🤣

  • The Horizon
    The Horizon 10 days ago +1851

    I think instead of competing on bezeless screens, companies will compete on how to have as much screen in one device as possible. Think foldable, things are gonna be insane

    • Emoji Movie
      Emoji Movie 5 days ago +1

      If you’re using pc, you can skip ads in less than a second by clicking on the video, then clicking ⬅ and then clicking ➡.

      Note: This does not work on mobile

    • Vedran Mihaljevic
      Vedran Mihaljevic 6 days ago

      @Cameron Stoness Why don't you invest everything you own in stocks and reap the fruits later on, you can make even a video about it in the future and I will watch it on my AR device.

    • Youtube Kullanıcısı
      Youtube Kullanıcısı 7 days ago

      @Viiltelijä Murhaaja No offense, but you have a quite old brain. I currently have an iPhone 12 Pro, and it's just too heavy for me. When I hold it over my face in bed, after just a couple of minutes my hand goes numb. The rumors suggest that with the iPhone 14 Pro Apple's going to switch to titanium as the frame material, which means the phone is going to get lighter and more durable at the same time, which in this day and age where smartphones have become extensions of our body (and brain) at this point, it could make sense for me to upgrade for that.

      The reason phones have become thicker and heavier over the last 3 years is because of consumers demanding both higher refresh rate screens (60Hz -> 120Hz), longer battery life, bigger cameras, better durability, and 5G, all at the same time. Just to give you a little bit of a perspective, the Galaxy S10+ that came out in Jan. 2019 was 7.8mm thick and 175g, while the Galaxy S21 Ultra that came out in Jan. 2021 is 8.9mm thick and 229g. That's a 23.5% increase in weight and a 12.3% increase in thickness, both of which you notice. Same deal with iPhones and every other phone model you can imagine. And we gotta figure out a solution.

    • Youtube Kullanıcısı
      Youtube Kullanıcısı 7 days ago

      @Sirdeathvids That's quite fuzzy logic if you ask me.

    • Youtube Kullanıcısı
      Youtube Kullanıcısı 7 days ago

      Competing on bezelless screens is already competing on how to have as much screen in a given area as possible, if you think about it. But the foldable vs. traditional slab phone situation will be similar to the current short vs. long form video format situation, in that they won't completely overtake slab phones, as slab phone still have advantages such as longer battery life, faster performance, better cameras, etc. mostly thanks to their internal volume. But foldables will be convenient when you want to want to put a 17" screen in your pocket so you'll be able to have a large screen for content consumption, productivity, and what have you when you head to your vacation (maybe while using your slab phone as the brains of that screen).

  • BelGrifex
    BelGrifex 4 days ago +7

    just thinking about the sheer amounts of information and culturally significant things that would be lost by the fall of TheXvid, Instagram, etc is really overwhelming. i have a music playlist with 1000+ songs and i could easily just lose them all.

    • Grace Esparza
      Grace Esparza 2 days ago +1

      Right? The fact that all these images, playlists, any type of content at this point, could just suddenly be lost and taken down without us having a say all of a sudden is very scary.

    • Interstellarpool176
      Interstellarpool176 2 days ago +1

      my thoughts exactly

  • Jake Grames
    Jake Grames 4 days ago +25

    Damn. Dude went from 20-50 in ten years. Must of found that “time traveling” crack pipe

  • Dan Nigro
    Dan Nigro 3 days ago +6

    2012 to 2014 has represented the biggest jump in tech changes in a decade. It’s not shocking these we’re misses but still entertaining.

  • Purpl3Pand4
    Purpl3Pand4 15 hours ago +1

    I have a guess, I feel like since the short videos are super popular right now, just like how blogs were in a all time high when you made your old prediction, I think short videos will decline in 10 years and instead people will revert to more long videos or streams.

  • Ziggy
    Ziggy 7 days ago +4121

    I think 2012 was the perfect year to have done this because it felt like a big transition year for smart phones and social media. Definitely didn’t see the death of blogs for a couple of years

    • Simple Simply
      Simple Simply 3 days ago

      @SentinalSlice I feel blogs aren’t coming back now since social media is pushing more and more ads.

    • KITTIE
      KITTIE 3 days ago +1

      Iot era is ten year from now... Easy excess to internet and everything is connected through internet thats what happen now and in future. More smart devices and improved more efficient tech

    • Wasdfgtvbyun
      Wasdfgtvbyun 3 days ago +2

      Nah, in the 90s is the most perfect year they invent automative, nuclear, and much more

    • Josh24
      Josh24 4 days ago +1

      @Paul B 2012 - 15

    • seheabol
      seheabol 5 days ago +1

      Are blogs dead? I really didn’t know

  • misolou fout
    misolou fout 4 days ago

    The end of this video genuinely sent a shiver down my spine as someone who relies on longform content.

  • Felix D
    Felix D 16 hours ago

    Making his prediction of 2032 short so that it can be more popular in the short youtube videos 10 years from now is genius.

  • Anonymous Muffin
    Anonymous Muffin 2 days ago

    God 2012 was such a different time. Keep up the great content, it’s really interesting to watch.

  • Megaman the second
    Megaman the second 4 days ago +512

    Are we ignoring the fact this guy went from looking 17 to 45 in 10 years

  • Thrill
    Thrill 10 days ago +6135

    Tom don’t worry, looking back at your past self and being embarrassed is something we can all relate to

    • Thrill
      Thrill 5 days ago

      @Emoji Movie I know

    • Emoji Movie
      Emoji Movie 5 days ago +1

      If you’re using pc, you can skip ads in less than a second by clicking on the video, then clicking ⬅ and then clicking ➡.

      Note: This does not work on mobile

    • Thoticcus Prime
      Thoticcus Prime 6 days ago

      Nope. I dont get embarrassed

    • Spyziy
      Spyziy 8 days ago

      “I’ve got the power of god and anime on my side!”
      Rip that kid

    • Robin
      Robin 10 days ago

      It actually shows how we developed since then, so the more we worry the more we developed.

  • Shiro Wolff
    Shiro Wolff Day ago

    10 years from now, most of our current jobs will be automated, virtual reality will be even stronger, cars will be most eletric and be able to drive all by themselves legally, also the quantum computers together with the I.A will be crucial to everything, when finally complete it will change our entire world and the technology will explode in development, more than we could ever imagine.

  • Stratilex
    Stratilex 3 days ago +2

    While TheXvid has so many flaws, its back-catalog of content is unmatched and it would be severely missed

  • Corban LaFon
    Corban LaFon Day ago

    Interesting, I highly doubt that 10 years is enough time to end TheXvid for good. There will always need to be a place for long form videos for the same reason you don't go to twitter to look for the steps in fixing your car. But still an interesting prediction that I at least partially agree with.

  • Samy
    Samy Day ago +1

    The real question is, how the hell did you age 25 years in 10?

  • Elo
    Elo 9 days ago +3477

    It's never occurred to me that Google might eventually shut down TheXvid, considering how much valuable content there is on it, but it makes sense. I hope people will make an archive until then.

    • Samuel Gibson
      Samuel Gibson 3 days ago

      My solution would be to subsidize public digital archives. Like, there are definitely some things on TheXvid which belong in the Library of Congress. I am sure some deal could be reached to manage the rights of videos deemed worthy of such an honor in the eventuality that TheXvid were to shut down or decide to do something else commercially. States should be more concerned with using technology better anyhow, and that kind of thing could spur more open standards being used by governments.

    • your comrade
      your comrade 6 days ago

      Ikr it’s scary

    • Smash Smashed
      Smash Smashed 7 days ago

      @Bumpadump - what? no competition isnt a bad thing?

    • Ian Krasnow
      Ian Krasnow 7 days ago +2

      @Grace Higgins If you'd asked any schmuck on the street in the 1990s: "if there was a way to stream any movie or show you wanted directly to your TV at any time of the day or night, either for a fee or on a subscription basis... No late fees, no fees for forgetting to rewind, would you choose that or would you choose going to the video store? Do you think modern video stores could compete if this happened?" I think they would have agreed with you. And people knowledgeable about computers and internet might have predicted that video streaming would be possible within 10 or 20 years.

      It's be a fun thought experiment to wonder what kind of amazing new technology could replace instant video streaming on youtube or netflix. Maybe someday someone will come up with a service that can broadcast movies directly to our brains. Maybe VR video will take over, although youtube already has VR functionality with things like Oculus, but the market is still so small that another player could potentially take over. But I can't really imagine anything likely to replace youtube in the next 10 or even 20 years

    • Ian Krasnow
      Ian Krasnow 7 days ago +2

      @Grace Higgins Blockbuster stopped being profitable because they had to compete with subscription based streaming services like Netflix. They had to maintain brick and mortar stores, so a subscription model wouldn't have been possible for them considering they paid for movies by the copy. There's currently no other technology that people could switch to for uploading and sharing videos to stream that youtube isn't doing. I don't see what could possibly change in the next decade to hurt them. At worst, youtube might have to start charging for server space to content creators or limiting free uploads.

  • Sawyer Smith
    Sawyer Smith Day ago

    I can’t imagine a world without youtube… but I think you’re right.

  • Aeonys
    Aeonys 3 days ago +1

    It's really strange... The videos I enjoy are (for the most part) either extreme long form video essays, starting at 30 minutes and only growing longer from there, or they are creative short form videos.

  • Morgan Kester
    Morgan Kester 3 days ago

    When it comes to wireless headphones I used to sound just like you. Then I actually tried them. If you haven't yet, I would highly recommend just giving them a chance. They aren't even that expensive, you can get a pair for like 20 bucks on amazon.

  • Sonoro Wolf
    Sonoro Wolf 2 days ago

    I predict VR and AR might become the next new big medium of entertainment, short form content may integrate into that as focus on your environment is still needed for both unless the content being consumed within a generated environment (VR) and you don't have to move in person, but I'd think this may be more common for on the go type AR content like glasses. Alternatively, AR glasses will just be Gen 2 Google glass and VR will just go back being a niche for gamers, training employees, and experiences.

  • Ehss
    Ehss 2 days ago

    Tom always knows how to sign off videos in the coolest way

  • Shamanfox
    Shamanfox 3 days ago

    Really liked this concept and analysis of your future prediction 10 years ago. I would really like to see you do a new 10 year prediction video in April, how you think the world and technology will look like in April 2032. Will VR become more mainstream? How will our phones advance from here on? What other smart devices could we be seeing within that timeframe? Will AR finally be perfected? There's so much that can be speculated, and I would really like to see what your predictions are :)

  • Elmer Fudd
    Elmer Fudd 3 days ago +5

    Did you think you would look TWENTY YEARS OLDER as oppose to it being ten? 😳

  • Koda Kowalchuk
    Koda Kowalchuk 4 days ago +26

    10 years ago you were 22 and now you're 48 crazy how time flies 💯

  • BlueJay
    BlueJay 9 days ago +1951

    Uncertainties like whether or not short form content will kill off long form content makes me weary about pursuing TheXvid full-time. I don't think short-form content can outright kill long-form content, as more complex character development, themes, and plot are only available in long-form content, but who really knows what will happen in this unstable world of ours.

    • ElDoRado1239
      ElDoRado1239 2 days ago

      ​@Carter PC gaming is dying all the time, it's just a thing it does. It was dying even before computers existed. ( not making fun of you but the very idea.... which also never died )

      Also, Length and High-Quality are not genres, memes, tags or fads. If it ever shifts too far towards Short and Crappy people will lose interest and Cola Original is born. It's kinda like saying "blue color will disappear because teal is way more popular".

      I wouldn't worry about being able to find both blue and teal in the shops, it's just that one of them will be on the top of the shelf for $2 more and the other will be down with -$2 discount. Until they take turns again.

    • Terry Djony
      Terry Djony 6 days ago

      Books are not replaced with some blog articles now, are they?

    • Mr.Friendly
      Mr.Friendly 7 days ago

      @IndiBrony There will always be someone who would prefer to drive themselves though so who knows

    • Jonathan Mayer
      Jonathan Mayer 7 days ago

      Quality will always prevail. Short form video is a fad that will fade to a niche or memes.

    • MK8 Master!
      MK8 Master! 7 days ago

      How the hell do you have more subscribers than me?

  • Matt
    Matt 4 days ago

    Speculative fiction is almost always about the time in which it's made.... and that's okay! I think it's neat as a historical document.

  • MrNicoJac
    MrNicoJac 3 days ago

    4:15 Your phone always recording you is correct though...
    Governments have found/created/bought ways to make phones record conversations, and some are known to have used this against activists and trouble makers. (for other governments, it's not known whether they do or don't do this)
    Also, as your own recent video showed, they can use the buzz of the grid to determine _when_ it was said. (if that isn't immediately recorded or broadcast anyways, that is)

  • Shifu_John
    Shifu_John 3 days ago

    I like how in 2012 the future was optimistic but now the future is mostly spoken about bleakly almost as if people fear what's to come

  • Calvin F
    Calvin F 2 days ago

    This is really cool. It's got me thinking i should make a video for myself regarding my life now, my memories from 10 years ago, and my predictions for 10 years in the future.

  • ObiWanBillKenobi
    ObiWanBillKenobi 7 days ago +6738

    TheXvid getting shut down is honestly a scary thought to me. Not in terms of privacy, but in terms of how much information I have absorbed through it (like learning how to use an oscilloscope), or reconnected with from before TheXvid existed (like obscure TV show clips), that would have all been severed with one swift stroke.

    • Mephiston
      Mephiston 3 days ago +1

      I mean you think about all the content that was lost from google video. It wasnt all just ported over, a lot of content was lost. Something may come along to replace youtube or supersede it, with many videos getting lost along the way unless they get rehosted.

    • Lopinfughop Farty Tarty
      Lopinfughop Farty Tarty 4 days ago

      @Brandon Smith all china’s plan bro.

    • point break
      point break 4 days ago

      If only they stop censoring and acting like they know better.

    • Hornii
      Hornii 4 days ago

      @Jack You bring up valid points, but I don't believe that TheXvid becoming educational based is a huge positive as it negatively effects entertainment and it's aspect of fun and "freedom".

    • Critical
      Critical 4 days ago

      Nooooo, you can't take youtube away. I need to consoom

  • noneyah
    noneyah 4 days ago

    I remember being in my bed at night after being forced to stop watching Cartoon Network or Disney, fuming and wishing I had a "magic tiny tv" I could watch any of my favorite shows on whenever I wanted. Then the iPhone came out, and now we have streaming. I also used to wish I could get any food I wanted anytime without having to talk to people. Childhood dreams came true.

  • Derryl Young
    Derryl Young 2 days ago

    I gave his video a like, JUST because of how critical you were of wireless earbuds. Though I do admit they have their pros, they're still far inferior to wired.

  • Gavin Jakubik
    Gavin Jakubik 2 days ago

    Got a sinking feeling at the end of this video. Really good stuff as always Tom

  • Ska 1
    Ska 1 Day ago

    I’d rather die now than see what will happen in 10 years. I’ll gladly take the alternative

  • mikeselectricstuff
    mikeselectricstuff 10 days ago +1634

    4:02 - not completely wrong - body worn cameras are common in some areas where staff interact with the public - police, security and others.

    • Emoji Movie
      Emoji Movie 5 days ago +1

      If you’re using pc, you can skip ads in less than a second by clicking on the video, then clicking ⬅ and then clicking ➡.

      Note: This does not work on mobile

    • null
      null 7 days ago

      traffic cameras and satellites too

    • reinux
      reinux 10 days ago +2

      Not to mention Amazon enslaving its drivers and warehouse workers with omnipresent cameras.

    • zombielizard218
      zombielizard218 10 days ago +2

      "Common" is relative.
      At least in America, idk about the UK
      Here only some police wear cameras, and of those that wear them, less actually keep them turned on or unobscured.

    • MAX
      MAX 10 days ago

      i'm the 1000th like :)

  • ÆmA
    ÆmA 4 days ago +18

    I imagine and hope that if google ever shuts down youtube, people won't be able to create for it anymore but content would still be available to watch. It would be horrible if they didn't but who knows

    • t
      t Day ago +1

      So much profit would be lost, if Google closed youtube 😶

    • eavening
      eavening 2 days ago +1

      So much human sociological information would be destroyed if youtube hosting was destroyed.

    • MsDestroyer900
      MsDestroyer900 2 days ago +1

      Hosting a site where everyone can watch archived TheXvid videos is expensive. Until we can harvest the sun's energy i doubt youtube can be kept without someone paying for it altruistically.

  • Luke Hanks
    Luke Hanks 3 days ago

    Kudos for making predictions. Extra kudos for making them disconformable. Triple kudos for actually reviewing them. I with everyone did this more.

  • FinePoint
    FinePoint 2 days ago

    Predictions love to think about what we'll gain, but often neglect the more obvious: what we'll lose.
    Things become obsolete.

  • Spoopi Boi
    Spoopi Boi Day ago

    I predict in 2032, VR is going to be mainstream enough, you can shop for groceries like buying things off the internet and the metaverse is gonna become almost like ready player one

  • lach888 c
    lach888 c 9 days ago +4365

    There’s 3 rules in predicting tech.
    1. The laws of physics never change
    2. Average consumers will always prefer simplicity (abstraction) over performance.
    3. Technology can never solve social problems on it’s own.

    • Lala
      Lala Day ago

      Quantum physics tho, the laws are different than Newtonian physics

    • Emoji Movie
      Emoji Movie 5 days ago

      If you’re using pc, you can skip ads in less than a second by clicking on the video, then clicking ⬅ and then clicking ➡.

      Note: This does not work on mobile

    • C Wheels
      C Wheels 6 days ago

      @F Yang Theoretical physics or something, I dunno.

    • C Wheels
      C Wheels 6 days ago

      @The Ultimate Emeralds 'r'eyou'r m'om*

    • The Rockin' Donkey
      The Rockin' Donkey 7 days ago

      @blank The real answer is that, when it comes to social problems, technology cuts both ways.

  • DWHoman
    DWHoman 3 days ago

    Doesn't seem like much has changed significantly from the consumer end-point, just minor performance increases. LED bulbs and screens is probably the most prominent as far as consumer-end goes. Products switching to subscription models is another big change. Electric cars are becoming more viable, but the Tesla Roadster run was from 2008 to 2012. Computers and cell devices have gotten slightly faster but not in ways that your average user would notice; I can run Windows 10 on my Phenom II desktop and it's fast. Cameras have gotten better and storage better with NVMe. Streaming was already becoming a thing. TheXvid was already 7 years old. Cloud-based computing has increased and matured. I don't see short form videos becoming dominant; you need a certain amount of space to say something. Same with writing. Blogging will never go away for technical societies. I've never really used Twitter. One thing that was already going away and has gone away is using abbreviations when messaging. Typing on a 12-button keypad was tedious. I think there were bigger changes from 2002 to 2012, especially with the rise of smart phones and people getting the majority of their information through the Internet.

  • l91106
    l91106 3 days ago

    i refuse to believe 2012 was ten years ago, it feels so recent to me, i think im officially now one of them old people who think the 70's was not long ago too.

  • Joe
    Joe 3 days ago

    For me TheXvid is an invaluable and extremely efficient learning tool.
    I've used it so much every single day for the past 10 years that I couldn't imagine not doing the same for the next 10.
    I personally dislike the short form video format. I can't learn much in under a minute and retain it after watching 10 more short form videos. Also portrait video sucks. You think that'd be easy to fix but if people don't have enough time to watch content over 60 seconds, they're not going to bother with a platform which requires them to rotate their phone 90 degrees.

  • iZZAEL Official
    iZZAEL Official 23 hours ago

    When I was a child my dream is to have a car running but floating without wheels. I'd probably dead when that happens tho.

  • Dávid G
    Dávid G 10 days ago +2158

    Moral of the story: Tom is much better at predicting the past and present, and being thrown through windows, than predicting the future.

    • Mitchell S.S Yao
      Mitchell S.S Yao 4 days ago

      Is like 16 year old me knowing this look at now

    • Emoji Movie
      Emoji Movie 5 days ago +1

      If you’re using pc, you can skip ads in less than a second by clicking on the video, then clicking ⬅ and then clicking ➡.

      Note: This does not work on mobile

    • FluidKer
      FluidKer 9 days ago

      How do you predict the past?

    • Knight
      Knight 9 days ago

      @Not Cason none

    • iOS Haven
      iOS Haven 9 days ago +1

      Agreed it is very easy to make comparisons to the past. It takes to true skill to know the past, present, and future. Caters of addiction catapult people forward and destroy everything in their path. As someone that has lived with drugs and alcohol my whole life, I see how the next 10 years will go.

      Someone needs to stop Shortform before all our families and friends turn into addicts.

  • Mememememe :o
    Mememememe :o Day ago

    I feel like i'm watching me in the future. In ten yrs i'll look back n be like "how did i not see that coming"
    It's quite exciting though

  • Michael Snelham
    Michael Snelham Day ago +1

    Long form audio (podcasts ext) will become massive in the next 10 years not necessarily bigger than video but a lot bigger it’s so much easier to listen to audio whilst you get on with your daily life at work, driving just examples podcasts Seem to be getting more popular anyway so seems kinda obvious to me might be wrong tho who knows

  • Keaden They-He
    Keaden They-He 3 days ago

    I am a gen z that barely knows a life without TheXvid. Watching that end screen gave me a sinking feeling. It was scary. I am afraid of that version of an end to an era. I like longer content. it helps with my anxiety in comparison to shorter content... I don't want it to go away. Also, I am writing a sci-fi book on post-apocalyptic events just like the ones tom mentioned. I mean, ofc I am. what the heck is someone raised in *this* madness we live in supposed to write instead? I think the world will end before I'm 30. Imagine being a teenager in the 20s. I want a refund. haha... ya loved the video. :)

  • dfsfdsfsdfsdfsadsdfs fdsdsfdfsdfdfsddfsdfs

    If I aged that much in ten years I would go see a doctor ASAP!

  • Gestumblindi
    Gestumblindi 9 days ago +2536

    "Back in summer 2012 this was a warm, friendly temporary festival site with a load of people on it, and now it's a cold, run-down, deserted bit of scrubland" - well, this sums up the difference between 2012 and 2022 quite well, doesn't it?

    • NoName32
      NoName32 6 days ago

      @Paul 123098 "the world ended, but immediately an exact same world started, it happends every day and nobody notices"

      Probavly nobody here will get this reference i think, since where it came from never got an english dub

    • Smalls *
      Smalls * 6 days ago

      Stephen the end of the world :D but like in a good way now

    • Johnny Cab
      Johnny Cab 6 days ago +1

      @Марлен Нурмаков wHaT iS a mEtApHoR?

    • Марлен Нурмаков
      Марлен Нурмаков 6 days ago +10

      No, this sums up the difference between summer and winter.

    • Close the door now
      Close the door now 6 days ago +6

      Your just suffering from nostalgia.